64.2%
Specialist development loans over 24 months old, Sept 2026
Market data · Q3 2026
Is demand for development exit finance rising? The Q3 2026 read
Three datasets, one question: are more schemes reaching practical completion with their build facility still in place and their units unsold? We read the Companies House charge register, Land Registry new-build sales and Rightmove selling times against 2019 and 2022 to find out.
Development finance Practical completion Sales period Exit
DevExit bridges from here → repaying development finance, funding the sales period, releasing equity.
2,968 charges
Live loans past the lender's typical term
24.9%
Released within 18 months, 2024 cohort
-8.6%
New-build sales on a year earlier, 4 quarters to 2025 Q3
67 days
Average time to find a buyer, September 2026
Reviewed by Matt Lenzie Founder & Principal Broker · 25 years in financial services · Updated November 2026
In short
5 of 13 available signals point to a rising requirement for development exit finance; 3 point to a falling requirement; 5 are flat. The stock of aged development loans is the clearest signal: 64.2% of live specialist development charges were more than 24 months old at Sept 2026 (Companies House charge register, Construction Capital analysis, Sept 2026), against 31.9% at end-2019, while the same measure for the whole register fell from 79.9% to 76.5%. Against that, the newest loans are being released faster: 24.9% of the 2024 cohort was released within 18 months, the highest since our series begins. The pressure sits in the 2021 to 2023 vintages, not in new lending.
5
signals point to a rising requirement for exit finance
3
point to a falling requirement
5
flat, inside the band
At a glance
- Signals pointing to rising requirement5 of 13
- Specialist loans over 24 months old64.2% (Companies House charge register, Construction Capital analysis, Sept 2026)
- Loans past the lender's typical term2,968 charges (Companies House charge register, Construction Capital analysis, Sept 2026)
- Released within 18 months, latest cohort24.9% (Companies House charge register, Construction Capital analysis, 2024 cohort)
- New-build sales, latest settled year80,203 sales (HM Land Registry Price Paid Data, Construction Capital analysis, 4 quarters to 2025 Q3)
- Average time to find a buyer67 days (Rightmove House Price Index, September 2026)
The read
The scorecard
We track 13 independent signals, each against its own year-earlier comparator, and count how many point in each direction. There are no weights and no composite score: the count is the read. "Rising" means the signal implies more schemes will need exit or extension finance, whichever way the underlying number moved.
| Signal | Population | Latest | Year earlier | End-2022 | End-2019 | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live book aged over 24 months, share of live charges | Specialist lenders | 64.2% (Sept 2026) | 63.7% | 44.4% | 31.9% | Flat |
| Live book aged over 24 months, share of live charges | Dev-like book | 61.4% (Sept 2026) | 61.5% | 56.3% | 43.2% | Flat |
| Live charges older than the lender's typical term | Specialist lenders | 2,968 (Sept 2026) | 2,779 | 1,737 | 742 | Rising |
| Charges redeemed within 12m of registration | Specialist lenders | 13.9% (2024 cohort) | 10.8% | 12.7% | 7.6% | Falling |
| Charges redeemed within 18m of registration | Specialist lenders | 24.9% (2024 cohort) | 19.7% | 22.4% | 16.1% | Falling |
| Charges redeemed within 12m of registration | Dev-like book | 9.3% (2024 cohort) | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | Flat |
| Charges redeemed within 18m of registration | Dev-like book | 15.6% (2024 cohort) | 14.9% | 13.2% | 12.6% | Flat |
| Net book flow, rolling four quarters (new charges minus satisfactions) | Specialist lenders | 262 (4Q to 2026 Q3) | 159 | 626 | 634 | Rising |
| Net book flow, rolling four quarters (new charges minus satisfactions) | Dev-like book | 5,651 (4Q to 2026 Q3) | 5,363 | 3,897 | 3,665 | Rising |
| Development exit refinance events, rolling four quarters (specialist senior charge succeeded by an unrelated lender) | Specialist lenders | 38 (4Q to 2026 Q3) | 34 | 23 | 24 | Rising |
| New-build sales registered, rolling four quarters (England and Wales) | Land Registry | 80,203 (4Q to 2025 Q3) | 87,740 | 130,443 | n/a | Rising |
| New-build premium over existing stock, houses, type-matched median | Land Registry | 20.3% (2025 Q3) | 17.2% | 13.6% | n/a | Falling |
| Average time to find a buyer (all listings) | Rightmove | 67 days (Sept 2026) | 64 days | 37 days | n/a | Flat |
How to read it
5 of 13 available signals point to a rising requirement for development exit finance; 3 point to a falling requirement; 5 are flat. Faster release of the newest cohort and a wider new-build premium on houses are the two counter-signals; both describe the schemes that are working, not the ones that are stuck.
Companies House · loan age
How old is the development loan book?
A development facility is written for 12 to 24 months. A charge that is still live two years after registration is a scheme that has either not completed, not sold or not refinanced. At Sept 2026, 4,625 charges registered by pure-play development lenders were live, and 64.2% of them were older than 24 months (Companies House charge register, Construction Capital analysis, Sept 2026). At end-2019 the share was 31.9%; at end-2022 it was 44.4%. The count of loans older than the lender's own typical term rose from 742 to 2,968, 4 times the 2019 level.
Specialist development lendersDevelopment-like bookWhole register (control)
Companies House charge register, Construction Capital analysis
12 months or under12 to 18 months18 to 24 months24 to 36 monthsOver 36 months
Companies House charge register, Construction Capital analysis
Some of that ageing is a filing artefact: lenders do not always file the release when a loan repays, so old charges accumulate on the register. That is why we carry a control. The share of every live charge at Companies House older than 24 months fell from 79.9% to 76.5% over the same period. The specialist development book aged far faster than the register it sits in, which is the signal, not the noise.
| Age of live specialist charge | Dec 2019 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2024 | Sept 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months or under | 40.0% | 29.9% | 20.6% | 20.0% |
| 12 to 18 months | 15.7% | 13.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% |
| 18 to 24 months | 12.4% | 12.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% |
| 24 to 36 months | 14.4% | 9.4% | 16.8% | 11.6% |
| Over 36 months | 17.5% | 35.0% | 44.7% | 52.6% |
| Live charges | 2,325 | 3,910 | 4,283 | 4,625 |
| Older than 24 months, share | 31.9% | 44.4% | 61.4% | 64.2% |
| Older than the typical term, count | 742 | 1,737 | 2,631 | 2,968 |
| Development-like book older than 24 months, share | 43.2% | 56.3% | 62.4% | 61.4% |
| Whole register older than 24 months, share | 79.9% | 78.6% | 80.1% | 76.5% |
The wider development-like book, which adds the mixed-tier bank and bridging charges that pass our development filter, shows the same shape at a lower pitch: 61.4% over 24 months old at Sept 2026, from 43.2% at end-2019, and flat on a year earlier. The filter rule and its counts are published in the methodology below.
Companies House · release speed
How quickly are new loans being released?
Ageing stock is one half of the picture. The other is whether new loans are exiting on time. Reading each registration year as a cohort and counting releases within fixed windows, 24.9% of specialist charges registered in 2024 were released within 18 months, against 19.7% for 2023 and 16.1% for 2019 (Companies House charge register, Construction Capital analysis, 2024 cohort). Within 12 months the figure was 13.9%. The newest lending is working faster than any cohort since 2021.
Within 12 monthsWithin 18 monthsWithin 24 monthsWithin 36 months
Companies House charge register, Construction Capital analysis
Fewer than half of any cohort is released within 36 months on the register, which is why the median time to release cannot be stated: it lies beyond the observation window for every year. The 2021 and 2022 cohorts, written into the post-pandemic cost surge, are the ones still carrying stock.
| Registration year | Population | Charges | Released within 12m | 18m | 24m | 36m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 (reference) | Specialist | 959 | 7.6% | 16.1% | 25.8% | 42.2% |
| 2020 (reference) | Specialist | 584 | 9.9% | 20.5% | 31.2% | 42.6% |
| 2021 | Specialist | 1,265 | 10.9% | 19.8% | 33.0% | 48.7% |
| 2022 | Specialist | 1,230 | 12.7% | 22.4% | 34.7% | 47.6% |
| 2023 | Specialist | 956 | 10.8% | 19.7% | 28.2% | n/a |
| 2024 | Specialist | 938 | 13.9% | 24.9% | n/a | n/a |
| 2019 (reference) | Development-like | 5,163 | 6.4% | 12.6% | 19.3% | 29.9% |
| 2020 (reference) | Development-like | 3,765 | 7.4% | 14.0% | 20.2% | 28.5% |
| 2021 | Development-like | 5,912 | 7.3% | 13.1% | 19.5% | 29.7% |
| 2022 | Development-like | 6,116 | 7.1% | 13.2% | 19.7% | 28.2% |
| 2023 | Development-like | 5,929 | 8.2% | 14.9% | 20.3% | n/a |
| 2024 | Development-like | 7,854 | 9.3% | 15.6% | n/a | n/a |
Reference years
Cohorts marked reference are affected by survivorship: the companies snapshot omits dissolved SPVs, so early cohorts understate releases. We compare 2021 onward only.
Companies House · net flow
Is the book growing faster than it is being released?
Net flow is new charges less satisfactions. In the four quarters to 2026 Q3 the specialist book added a net 262 charges (Companies House charge register, Construction Capital analysis, 4 quarters to 2026 Q3), and the development-like book a net 5,651 (Companies House charge register, Construction Capital analysis, 4 quarters to 2026 Q3), above the 3,897 of 2022. More facilities are being written than are being released, and the gap is widening in the wider book.
New chargesSatisfactions (releases)
Companies House charge register, Construction Capital analysis
New chargesSatisfactions (releases)
Companies House charge register, Construction Capital analysis
Companies House charge register, Construction Capital analysis
The most direct evidence of exit demand being met is a specialist development senior charge succeeded by an unrelated lender on the same title. We counted 38 such events in the four quarters to 2026 Q3 (Companies House charge register, Construction Capital analysis, 4 quarters to 2026 Q3), against 34 a year earlier and 23 in 2022. The numbers are small because only title-matched successions are visible, but the direction is consistent with the ageing book.
| Calendar year | Specialist new | Specialist released | Specialist net | Dev-like new | Dev-like released | Dev-like net | Exit refinance events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 959 | 325 | 634 | 5,163 | 1,498 | 3,665 | 24 |
| 2020 | 584 | 421 | 163 | 3,765 | 1,602 | 2,163 | 10 |
| 2021 | 1,265 | 469 | 796 | 5,912 | 1,957 | 3,955 | 20 |
| 2022 | 1,230 | 604 | 626 | 6,116 | 2,219 | 3,897 | 23 |
| 2023 | 956 | 758 | 198 | 5,929 | 2,556 | 3,373 | 30 |
| 2024 | 938 | 763 | 175 | 7,854 | 2,975 | 4,879 | 30 |
| 2025 | 912 | 728 | 184 | 8,760 | 3,299 | 5,461 | 40 |
| 4Q to 2026 Q3 | 962 | 700 | 262 | 9,562 | 3,911 | 5,651 | 38 |
Land Registry · completed sales
How fast are completed units selling?
A development exit is repaid by sales. Land Registry registered 80,203 new-build transactions in England and Wales in the 4 quarters to 2025 Q3 (HM Land Registry Price Paid Data, Construction Capital analysis, 4 quarters to 2025 Q3), down 8.6% on a year earlier and down 38.5% on calendar 2022. New-build's share of all sales fell from 12.8% to 8.4%. The series stops at 2025 Q3 because new-build registrations trail completion by a year or more; the later quarters are not weak, they are unregistered.
HM Land Registry Price Paid Data, England and Wales, Construction Capital analysis
Pricing has held. The median new-build house sold at a 20.3% premium to the median existing house in 2025 Q3 (HM Land Registry Price Paid Data, Construction Capital analysis, 2025 Q3), wider than the 17.2% a year earlier. Developers are selling fewer units, not cheaper ones, which is consistent with stock being held rather than cleared.
| Period | All sales | New-build sales | New-build share | New-build premium, houses | New-build premium, flats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1,211,186 | 133,660 | 11.0% | 22.0% | 54.5% |
| 2022 | 1,015,672 | 130,443 | 12.8% | 13.6% | 40.7% |
| 2023 | 808,697 | 96,020 | 11.9% | 20.0% | 34.3% |
| 2024 | 878,041 | 88,072 | 10.0% | 17.6% | 41.2% |
| 4 quarters to 2025 Q3 | 951,589 | 80,203 | 8.4% | 20.3% | 59.1% |
Rightmove · selling time
How long does it take to find a buyer?
Rightmove's average time to find a buyer across all listings was 67 days in September 2026 (Rightmove House Price Index, September 2026), up from 64 a year earlier and above the 37 of the same month in 2022. July came in at 63 days against 62 in July 2019, our only same-month comparison with the years before 2022. Winter peaks have also moved up: 62 days in January 2023, 78 days in January 2024, 77 days in January 2025, 81 days in January 2026. The latest is the highest in the series, so a scheme completing into the autumn should plan for the slowest stretch of the year.
NationalLondon
Rightmove House Price Index, monthly editions
| Month | National, days | London, days |
|---|---|---|
| July 2019 | 62 | n/a |
| July 2022 | 33 | 47 |
| July 2023 | 55 | 61 |
| July 2024 | 60 | 61 |
| July 2025 | 62 | 66 |
| July 2026 | 63 | 73 |
| January 2023 (winter peak) | 62 | 74 |
| January 2024 (winter peak) | 78 | 84 |
| January 2025 (winter peak) | 77 | 76 |
| January 2026 (winter peak) | 81 | 89 |
- Rightmove, House Price Index, 19 October 2026: The average two-year fixed mortgage rate has risen to 5.55%, from 5.29% last month and 4.25% before the war in Iran started.
- Rightmove, House Price Index, 19 October 2026: The number of sales agreed is down 8% on the same period a year ago, broadly in line with the year to date.
- Rightmove, House Price Index, 19 October 2026: The number of new potential buyers contacting agents is 9% lower than a year ago and new listings are 3% higher.
- Rightmove, House Price Index, 19 October 2026: The total number of homes available for sale remains at its highest level for this time of year since 2014.
- Rightmove, House Price Index, 20 July 2026: The number of new developments coming to market is at its lowest level since January 2017.
- Rightmove, House Price Index, 20 July 2026: Sales agreed in the first half of 2026 were 6% lower than the same period in 2025 but level with the first half of 2024.
- Rightmove, House Price Index, 20 July 2026: Homes that needed an asking price reduction spent an average of 127 days on the market, against 36 days for those that sold without a reduction; nearly three quarters (74%) of homes sold in 2026 did so without a reduction.
- Rightmove, House Price Index, 20 July 2026: The number of available homes for sale is 1% below this time last year but still very close to a 12-year high for the time of year.
- Rightmove, House Price Index, 21 July 2025: Sales agreed were 5% higher than a year earlier and the number of available homes for sale was at a decade high.
Regions
Where is the pressure by region?
Regional cuts use the property postcodes named in the charge, which covers 43.6% of specialist charges and 65.3% of the development-like book. Cells below 30 observations are suppressed. Rightmove regions are shown side by side where two fold into one lending-monitor region.
Companies House charge register, Construction Capital analysis
| Region | Specialist charges over 24 months old, end-2022 to 2026 H1 | Development-like book over 24 months old, 2025 H1 to 2026 H1 | New-build sales, 4 quarters to 2025 Q3 (change on a year earlier) | Days to find a buyer, July 2024 to July 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| London & South East | 31.8% to 61.7% | 58.0% to 58.4% | 18,402 (-11.6%) | 60 / 61 to 70 / 67 |
| South West | 30.2% to 65.4% | 59.4% to 60.6% | 7,380 (-8.7%) | 62 to 69 |
| Midlands | 45.5% to 67.2% | 56.4% to 56.6% | 18,575 (-0.5%) | 65 / 61 to 68 / 62 |
| North West | 53.2% to 69.4% | 56.7% to 55.9% | 10,089 (-20%) | 58 to 57 |
| North East & Yorkshire | 42.5% to 56.3% | 54.7% to 54.6% | 12,975 (-10.7%) | 54 / 62 to 53 / 62 |
| East of England | 31.7% to 54.6% | 59.2% to 59.1% | 10,467 (-0.7%) | 62 to 66 |
| Wales | 71.0% to 60.0% | 52.7% to 50.9% | 2,314 (-6.4%) | 71 to 66 |
Between Rightmove's July 2025 and July 2026 panels, selling times lengthened most in London, by 6 days, and held in the North West and North East. Aged specialist stock has risen in six of the seven regions since 2022. The exception is Wales, from 71% to 60%, on a base of only 35 live charges.
What it means
What this means if you are approaching practical completion
- Start the exit conversation at least three months before the build facility matures. The stock of loans past their typical term shows how many sponsors did not.
- Plan the sales period on the winter peak, not the summer trough. A scheme completing in September is selling into the slowest quarter of the year.
- If the pricing is right, hold the price and fund the time. The widening new-build premium says the market is still paying for the right product; the falling sales count says it is paying more slowly.
- A development exit facility priced on the completed value, with interest retained, usually costs less than the extension fees and default rates on an overrun build facility.
Methodology
Methodology and caveats
- Populations: specialist development lenders (10,127 charges since records began) and a development-like book that adds mixed-tier bank and bridging charges passing this rule: specialist tier, or mixed-tier charge whose borrower carries SIC 41100/41202, or whose particulars contain development keywords (development, land at, land on the, site at, building agreement), or whose borrower carries SIC 68100 and was incorporated within 12 months of the charge and carries no buy-to-let SIC (68201/68202/68209). Of 394,968 mixed-tier charges, 56,601 pass it. The unfiltered mixed tier is dominated by buy-to-let term lending and is never presented as a development signal.
- Live book: a charge is live at a date if registered on or before it and not satisfied by it. Quarter-ends within 30 days of the satisfaction vintage (2026-11-02) are provisional and excluded from the scorecard.
- Release cohorts: a registration year is reported at a window only when every charge in it has had the full window of observation. Release rates are floors because satisfactions are often filed late or never.
- Exit refinance events: a specialist development senior charge satisfied at or near the registration of an unrelated lender's charge on the same title. Related-party successions are excluded.
- Land Registry: England and Wales houses, bungalows and flats aggregated by postcode district. All-sales quarters within six months of the vintage (2026-09-30) and new-build quarters within twelve months are censored and excluded.
- Time on market: Rightmove's average days from listing to sold subject to contract, all listings, not new-build specific. Zoopla publishes a different measure on a different basis; we do not chain the two.
- Sensitivity: admitting mixed-tier charges on development SIC codes alone (39,472 charges) gives an over-24-month share of 43.2% at end-2019, 55.8% at end-2022 and 65.4% at Sept 2026, and the scorecard reads: 4 of 13 available signals point to a rising requirement for development exit finance; 3 point to a falling requirement; 6 are flat.
- No lender is named. Companies House filings record no loan values. Scotland is outside the sold-data and regional scope.
Sources: Companies House (Charge register (MR01/MR04 filings) analysed through the Construction Capital Lending Monitor, charges to 2026-10-30, satisfactions to 2026-11-02); HM Land Registry (Price Paid Data, England and Wales, transactions to 2026-09-30); Rightmove (House Price Index, monthly editions, to September 2026). Companies House filings record no loan values, so lending activity is measured in charge counts; satisfactions are often filed late or never, so release rates are floors and aged stock is a ceiling. Land Registry new-build registrations trail completion by a year or more, so the sold-data series stops at 2025 Q3. Cuts below 30 observations are suppressed.
FAQ
Development exit demand: common questions
How do you measure whether a development loan is aged?
We read the Companies House charge register. A charge registered by a development lender that is still live 24 months after registration is counted as aged, and one older than the lender's typical term is counted as past term. At Sept 2026, 64.2% of live specialist development charges were over 24 months old (Companies House charge register, Construction Capital analysis, Sept 2026).
Why do these figures understate redemptions?
Lenders do not always file the release (form MR04) when a loan repays, so some charges that show as live have in fact been repaid. Every release rate we publish is therefore a floor and every aged-stock figure a ceiling. We carry a whole-register control so the reader can see that the development book has aged much faster than the register as a whole.
Why does the new-build sales data stop a year before today?
A new-build sale is registered at the Land Registry only after completion and first registration, which can take a year or more after the deed date. Recent quarters therefore look empty when they are simply unregistered. We publish new-build figures only to 2025 Q3, twelve months before the data vintage.
Is demand for development exit finance rising?
5 of 13 available signals point to a rising requirement for development exit finance; 3 point to a falling requirement; 5 are flat. The strongest evidence is the ageing of the specialist development loan book and the fall in registered new-build sales; the counter-evidence is that the newest cohort of loans is being released faster than any since 2021.
Approaching practical completion?
Send us the scheme, the facility and the sales position and we will give a view on the exit options and indicative terms.