Regional report · Q3 2026

Development Exit in the Midlands: Q3 2026

Steady sales, but the oldest specialist loan book in the country.

56.7%
Development-like book over 24 months old
61.4% nationally
69.2%
Specialist book over 24 months old
on 224 live charges
18,575
New-build sales, latest settled year
-0.5% on the year
14.3%
New-build sales outside the standard private category
16.3% nationally
Matt Lenzie
Reviewed by Matt Lenzie Founder & Principal Broker · 25 years in financial services · Updated November 2026
01 / The read

Steady sales, but the oldest specialist loan book in the country.

The Midlands in Q3 2026, read from Companies House charges and Land Registry sales, with 5 location reports behind the local picture.

Our central judgement

Sales holding almost level alongside the oldest specialist book, 69.2%, suggests the difficulty is specific to certain loans rather than the market as a whole, though the specialist base of 224 live charges is small.

02 / Our analysis

What stands out in the Midlands

The Midlands recorded 18,575 new-build sales, about the same as London and the South East's 18,402, from a much smaller development loan book. On these figures it has been one of the more dependable places to sell new homes, which sits oddly with its loan age.

Birmingham shows that tension most clearly. It has the oldest development book of any location we cover in the region, 71.4% over 24 months, yet its standard new-build sales rose 40.8%. Stoke-on-Trent is far younger at 50.0%. Nottingham is one to watch from the other side, with a 41.8% fall on a small base of 57 sales.

03 / Lender data · stock

56.7% of the development-like book in the Midlands is over two years old

That is number 4 of 7 regions by age, against 61.4% nationally at 30 September 2026.

Age of the live loan book
PopulationLive chargesOver 24 monthsYear earlier
Development-like4,24256.7%56.3%
Specialist lenders22469.2%not shown
04 / Sold data · absorption

18,575 new-build sales in the Midlands, -0.5% on the year

The smallest annual fall of the seven regions, in the four quarters to 2025 Q3. Against 2022: -26.2%, nationally -36.6%.

Midlands: new-build sales, rolling four quarters to 2025 Q3, the last settled quarter
010,00020,00030,00040,0002020 Q42021 Q42022 Q42023 Q42025 Q3New-build sales, 2020 Q4: 21,344New-build sales, 2021 Q1: 23,286New-build sales, 2021 Q2: 27,680New-build sales, 2021 Q3: 27,882New-build sales, 2021 Q4: 26,338New-build sales, 2022 Q1: 25,084New-build sales, 2022 Q2: 25,021New-build sales, 2022 Q3: 25,163New-build sales, 2022 Q4: 26,053New-build sales, 2023 Q1: 25,342New-build sales, 2023 Q2: 23,892New-build sales, 2023 Q3: 22,109New-build sales, 2023 Q4: 20,137New-build sales, 2024 Q1: 19,162New-build sales, 2024 Q2: 18,883New-build sales, 2024 Q3: 18,673New-build sales, 2024 Q4: 19,208New-build sales, 2025 Q1: 20,118New-build sales, 2025 Q2: 19,228New-build sales, 2025 Q3: 18,575Sales 18,575

HM Land Registry Price Paid Data, Construction Capital analysis

View the chart data
Midlands: new-build sales, rolling four quarters
QuarterNew-build sales, rolling 4QNew-build share %
2020-Q42134413.9
2021-Q12328613.5
2021-Q22768013.2
2021-Q32788212.3
2021-Q42633812.2
2022-Q12508412.5
2022-Q22502113.6
2022-Q32516314.2
2022-Q42605314.3
2023-Q12534214.4
2023-Q22389214.4
2023-Q32210914.2
2023-Q42013713.8
2024-Q11916213.4
2024-Q21888312.9
2024-Q31867312.4
2024-Q41920812.1
2025-Q12011811.4
2025-Q21922811.1
2025-Q31857510.6
Sales outside the standard private category, 12 months to September 2025
MidlandsEngland and Wales
All new-build14.3%16.3%
New-build flats44.4%36.0%
05 / Sold data · pricing

New-build houses in the Midlands sold at a 28.0% premium to existing stock

Median prices for 2025 Q3, against 20.3% nationally. Type-matched, not like for like.

Close enough to the national figure that scheme specifics should matter more than the regional average. Flats show 82.7%, a more volatile figure on far fewer sales.

06 / Combined data · locations

The local picture from 5 location reports

Locations with at least 30 new charges in the year, against 61.3% and -7.1% nationally.

Oldest live development books
LocationOver 24 monthsLive chargesExits filed, 12m
Birmingham71.4%67458
Nottingham59.6%22524
Stoke-on-Trent50.0%18422
Largest falls in standard new-build sales
LocationChangeNew-build sales, settled 12m
Nottingham-41.8%57
Wolverhampton-19.6%74
Derby-5.7%282
Stoke-on-Trent+18%210
Birmingham+40.8%673

Small local totals swing sharply when one large scheme finishes selling, so a large percentage can reflect one site rather than a market.

Fastest growth in new development charges
LocationChangeNew charges, 12m
Nottingham+100%64
Birmingham+15%115
Stoke-on-Trent-9.3%49

These loans reach practical completion from around 2027, so this is where exit demand may form next.

07 / Planning data · context

51,581 stated units approved in the Midlands

4,409 approvals across 55 authorities in the year to September 2026, 3,528 of them stating units, so this is a floor. See the methodology for why we do not rank regions on it.

08 / Our view · for developers

What this means if you are building in the Midlands

This is our opinion as finance arrangers, drawn from the evidence above. It is general commentary rather than advice on any scheme, and indicative structures vary by lender, asset and borrower.

  • Start the exit conversation before the facility forces it. With selling times at 67 days to find a buyer before any legal work, a scheme with a few months left on its loan has little room. A development exit facility is easier to arrange with time in hand and sales evidence than with a default date approaching.
  • Test the appraisal against today's selling speeds, not 2022's. Rebuild the cash flow with the current time to find a buyer, then add the legal process, and allow for buyers borrowing at higher mortgage rates. If the numbers need faster sales, consider sales period finance before you need it rather than after.
  • Decide early whether a block sale is a real option. In the Midlands, 44.4% of new-build flat sales sit outside the standard private category. Company and investor buyers exist, but sales in this category show a much lower median than standard sales, so stress the debt against a lower price. If it does not repay, the plan needs another route, such as finance against unsold units.
  • Treat a part-complete scheme as a different conversation. Where the build is unfinished, the funding gap and the exit need to be solved together. Part-complete development exit sets out what lenders generally want to see.
  • Bring evidence, not hope. Lenders usually size an exit on what the units will achieve and how fast they will sell. Reservations, local comparables and a realistic sales plan tend to do more for your terms than any market average, including the ones in this report.
What would change our view

We would turn more cautious if the 2024 cohort's repayment rate falls back as it ages, if new development lending keeps outpacing exit-type lending into 2027, or if higher mortgage rates keep sales agreed below the previous year into next spring. We would turn less cautious if the count of loans past their typical term starts to fall.

09 / Research record

How this report was built

Every figure is calculated from the sources below when the page is built. Nothing is estimated, and cuts below the minimum sample are shown as suppressed.

  • Charges. Companies House mortgage and charge filings. A charge is security registered by a lender. It shows a loan was taken and when it was repaid, but not how much was lent, because filings have recorded no amounts since 2013. Registered to 30 October 2026, satisfactions filed to 2 November 2026.
  • Lender populations. Specialist means charges held by a curated set of pure-play development lenders (10,127 charges). Development-like adds charges from development-active mixed lenders where the borrower carries a housebuilding code (SIC 41100 or 41202), the charge particulars use development terms, or a newly formed property company with no buy-to-let code is the borrower (66,728 charges in total). These mixed lenders also write buy-to-let books, so this wider measure is noisier. Location and exit-type figures use the strict version, with housebuilding codes only. Lenders are never named.
  • Satisfactions. Filing is not compulsory, so every repaid figure is a floor and every aged figure is a ceiling. A quarter-end is provisional until 30 days after the data cut-off, which our tests between successive data vintages support: charge filings arrive within about 20 days, and figures at that age did not move materially when re-run three months later.
  • Survivorship. The company register holds live companies only, so older cohorts are missing scheme companies since dissolved. Cohorts up to 2020 are reference only.
  • Sold data. HM Land Registry Price Paid Data, England and Wales, detached, semi-detached, terraced and flats. New-build figures stop at 2025 Q3 because registrations lag completions by a year or more.
  • Two new-build counts. National series in this report count every price paid category, giving 80,203 sales in the four quarters to 2025 Q3. Location reports and rankings count Category A only, giving 67,091 in a near-identical window. Most of the difference is Category B, which the buyer mix analysis measures directly.
  • Regions. Charges are placed by property postcode where one can be identified: 43.6% of the specialist book and 65.3% of the development-like book. England and Wales only.
  • Suppression. Shares and medians with fewer than 30 observations are withheld rather than estimated.
  • Planning. Approved residential applications from council portals, deduplicated by authority and reference. Approvals lead completions by two to four years, and coverage differs by region, so totals are context and are not ranked.
  • Selling time. Rightmove House Price Index, entered from published releases. It covers all listings, not new-build alone.

Contains HM Land Registry data © Crown copyright and database right 2026, licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Companies House data is used under its public register terms. You are welcome to cite or chart these figures with a link to this page.

This report is general market commentary. It is not financial, legal, tax or investment advice, and it is not an offer of finance. DevExit is a finance arranger and introducer, not a lender.

Data vintage: Charges to 2026-10-30; satisfactions to 2026-11-02; Land Registry to 2026-09-30. Published 2026-11-03.

FAQ

Common questions

Is development exit finance available in the Midlands?

Yes, exit finance is arranged across England and Wales. What a lender will offer depends on the scheme, its sales evidence and the borrower rather than the region alone, and terms vary by lender.

How old is the development loan book in the Midlands?

56.7% of the development-like book located to property here was over 24 months old at 30 September 2026, compared with 61.4% nationally. Unfiled satisfactions mean this is a ceiling.

Approaching practical completion?

Send us the scheme, the facility and the sales position and we will give a view on the exit options and indicative terms.